Beating Swords into Slogans: Can Nonviolent Action Substitute for Violent Extremism?

Abstract

This pre-analysis plan describes the hypothesis, research design, and sampling procedures for two survey experiments that explore how the presence of nonviolent alternatives affects individual support for violent extremist organizations (VEOs). The first experiment tests whether respondent support for VEOs decreases in the presence of an alternative, nonviolent campaign, and whether this effect depends on the government’s repressive behavior. The second experiment considers whether this substitution effect can be enhanced by emphasizing particular psychological motivations for participation in nonviolent resistance. The experiments build on studies demonstrating that individuals participate in VEOs to satisfy emotional and psychological needs. If these needs can be satisfied by participation in nonviolent mobilization, then nonviolent action may serve as a substitute for violent extremism.