Breaking Down Pillars of Support for Democratic Backsliding

Abstract

Can civil resistance counter democratic backsliding? Civil resistance campaigns are most effective when they shift the loyalty of regime “pillars of support.” Yet we know little about how loyalty shifts occur or the tactics that erstwhile pillars employ post-loyalty shift. And the literature has focused on civil resistance against autocracies, rather than democratic backsliding. To fill these gaps, we collect and analyze data on actions by resistance campaigns and four key pillars of support in a random sample of democratic backsliding periods. We find that civil resistance is associated with democracy protection, but success rates are lower than in campaigns against autocracies; that quiet diplomacy and relationship-building by activists are most effective in shifting pillar loyalty; and that noncooperation tactics by pillar actors are particularly successful. We further support these findings with an illustrative case study of the 2004 Ukrainian “Orange Revolution.”